Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi speaks against the arrest of opposition leader Arvind Kejriwal at a rally organized by INDIA, an alliance formed by opposition parties, in New Delhi on March 31, 2024.

Key Details

When more than two dozen opposition parties in India announced they would band together as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (or INDIA) last June, critics of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party were hopeful they could pose a formidable challenge to the widely popular incumbent government. But weeks before voting in the country’s general election gets underway, the big-tent alliance is fractured from infighting, clashes, and competing interests. Worse still, a crackdown on the opposition by the Indian government has now reached what Amnesty describes as “a crisis point.”

“We are seeing a situation where opposition parties are very, very weakened as we approach elections,” says Anjali Bhardwaj, the founder of Satark Nagrik Sangathan, a Delhi-based citizens’ group working to promote transparency and accountability in government.

Recent Developments

The latest—and perhaps most historic—blow to the opposition occurred on March 21, when Delhi’s chief minister Arvind Kejriwal was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), a federal economic law enforcement agency, for bribery in awarding liquor licenses to contractors in the national capital nearly two years prior—allegations that he denies. Several others connected to the case are also in jail on graft charges.

Kejriwal’s arrest sparked mass outrage in Delhi, with protestors taking to the streets to demand the release of one of the country’s most influential and outspoken critics of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. As the leader of the Aam Aadmi Party, or AAP, which currently controls state governments in the national capital region and Punjab, he is considered a thorn in the side of the government.

Consider the Context

Though Kejriwal’s arrest is not exactly a surprise, it nevertheless raises eyebrows when one considers that Modi has little to fear in this election. The Indian leader has seen a surge in popularity following the Ram Temple inauguration in the city of Ayodhya earlier this year, a capstone for a powerful leader who has built a mass following on religious nationalism. A recent survey found that 78% of those polled approved of Modi. Pundits predict an easy win for the BJP.

“Mr. Modi is a popular leader who has garnered a lot of support amongst people in the Hindu majority,” contends Bhardwaj, “but we are also seeing a complete crackdown on political opposition and the capture of institutions.”

With the election a mere 17 days away, all eyes are now on India’s opposition to see if it can successfully sound the alarm on the prospect of a constitutional crisis. The big question, says Bhardwaj, is “how free and fair the elections are likely to be with these kinds of challenges.”

The Weaponization of Institutions

Political experts say the key reason behind the decline in India’s opposition is that many of the important institutions essential to the functioning of democracy—such as independent media or the judiciary—have been captured by those in power.

For example, in the 2014 elections, corruption was a prominent theme in the BJP’s platform, helping create a wave against the incumbent Congress party at the time. “Thousands of people gathered on the streets in Delhi to protest against corruption, and it was reported very extensively by the mainstream media,” recalls Bhardwaj.

But over the last decade, India’s mainstream media has largely come under the control of large corporations whose CEOs often rub shoulders with the prime minister.

Space for civil society has also shrunk through the use of various laws and institutions, leading to a chilling effect on protest. Police have quelled peaceful protests and thrown activists and dissidents into jail using draconian anti-terrorism laws. The courts have mostly refrained from granting bail to many of these individuals.

Fractured Alliances

The INDIA alliance has made little headway in presenting itself as a united front in challenging Modi, thanks to factional infighting and conflicts in seat-sharing negotiations. The Congress Party, which dominated politics after India’s independence in 1947, has increasingly fielded its own candidates to fill seats in a majority of the states, alienating regional parties, many of whom were already at loggerheads with each other across state lines.

All this has amounted to, at best, a weak attempt to challenge Modi’s popularity.