Flags of member nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are displayed at a naval base during the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise Natuna 2023 in Batam, Indonesia, on Sept. 20, 2023.

Key Details

For the first time in the five years that Southeast Asians have been annually surveyed on who their preferred partner would be if they had to align with China or the United States, China has overtaken the U.S. as the preferred choice of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), according to the latest report by Singapore-based think tank ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. But, experts warn, the findings display far from a unanimous tilt towards China amid the great-power rivalry vexing the region.

Almost 2,000 respondents across the 10 member states of the geopolitical union were asked the question: “If ASEAN were forced to align itself with one of the strategic rivals, which should it choose?”

Recent Developments

This year, seven out of the 10 countries—Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand—polled higher in favor of China compared to last year, with the biggest changes seen in Laos and Malaysia, which jumped by 29.5% and 20.3%, respectively. At the same time, preference for China fell in the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam.

“Each country maintains its own agency and views on the U.S.-China binary question. Hence we cannot assume that the region has a united view about China or the U.S.,” says Sharon Seah, a senior fellow at the institute’s ASEAN Studies Centre and a lead author of the annual report, tells TIME.

Consider the Context

Mark S. Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Japan’s Kansai Gaidai University, tells TIME that the recent survey results are hardly surprising, since “ASEAN as an institution is divided and has so many different displays of behavior when it comes to U.S.-China relations.”

“The key takeaway,” says Seah, “is that as the geopolitical environment becomes more volatile, the region is looking to enhance its internal resilience.”